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50% = 0%

JezJez
Reactions: 1,390
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edited July 31 in Rants and Raves
cool
wasted all my coins
why do event shop 50% scrolls never work for me?
why do i keep buying them every event?
also why doesnt nexon put honest percentages on scrolls?
WONDERGUY

Comments

  • AggraphineAggraphine
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    edited August 1
    Gotta love it when someone hits the bad 50 several times in a row(since prior failure does not influence future success) and cries about false percentages on scrolls
  • JezJez
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    edited August 1
    the probability of getting the same result that many times in a row on a coin flip is astronomically low, yet it is incredibly common for this to happen
    i refuse to believe that it is simply 50% there has to be other factors involved

    dont @ me, i dont like your responses ever
    i think i asked you not to respond to my threads quite a few times
    WONDERGUY
  • AggraphineAggraphine
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    edited August 1
    And I say you just got unlucky.

    You know how many 60% scrolls I failed way back when scroll seller npcs were a thing? I don't think I ever passed more than one per piece of equipment I tried it on. Your luck is just trash and you're blaming the game for it.
  • JezJez
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    edited August 1
    getting the same exact result this many times in a row on a coin flip is virtually impossible
    go ahead, try it
    there is no way it is 50%

    and another anecdote related, once i had success on two 1% scrolls in a row
    i refuse to believe these percentages are real, there has to be some other factor in the coding
    WONDERGUY
  • WONDERGUYWONDERGUY
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    edited August 1
    with how terrible and incompetent codeing is last few years
    wont be surprised if the rates are wrong or buged untill majority in community gathers and do documented session testing the rates and rub the results in nexon faces

    i still cant get out of my mind the time when nexon refused to give their lootbox rates and made evryone think that the rates/chance of items are same and say like is player "fault" for s-ity "RNG" keep trying and what random means for them etc etc

    untill they got fined and revealed the rates of how low were some of the items compared to other, so later on all nexon games they made lootbox rates public
    @@@
  • Penguinz0Penguinz0
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    edited August 1
    Jez wrote: »
    the probability of getting the same result that many times in a row on a coin flip is astronomically low, yet it is incredibly common for this to happen
    i refuse to believe that it is simply 50% there has to be other factors involved

    dont @ me, i dont like your responses ever
    i think i asked you not to respond to my threads quite a few times

    You're basically talking to an attention deprived brick wall. It's just healthier to ignore nx lawyers. It's absolutely hilarious how these kinds of people vehemently believe that nexon would never lie about enhancement chances despite statistical improbabilities AND Nexon having lied about scroll chances in the past. It's all just bad luck and rng. Just sheeps being sheeps.
    WONDERGUY
  • L4d2jpnL4d2jpn
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    Member, Private Tester
    edited August 2
    Shrugs, I failed 4/7 60% gollux scrolls, passed a 50% inno, passed 7/7 60% gollux scrolls, passed a 50% hammer, passed a 60% gollux, passed a 50% hammer, passed a 60% gollux. Then gave that earring to a friend who didn't have one.

    Pass fails seem to come in blocks. If you fail one, wait 3-5s before doing another. If you pass keep going.
  • iArrowZiArrowZ
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    edited August 3
    Penguinz0 wrote: »
    Jez wrote: »
    the probability of getting the same result that many times in a row on a coin flip is astronomically low, yet it is incredibly common for this to happen
    i refuse to believe that it is simply 50% there has to be other factors involved

    dont @ me, i dont like your responses ever
    i think i asked you not to respond to my threads quite a few times

    You're basically talking to an attention deprived brick wall. It's just healthier to ignore nx lawyers. It's absolutely hilarious how these kinds of people vehemently believe that nexon would never lie about enhancement chances despite statistical improbabilities AND Nexon having lied about scroll chances in the past. It's all just bad luck and rng. Just sheeps being sheeps.

    do you have sources for those accusations?

    also maybe the guy making threads should stop whining LMAO. honestly.

    you had back luck with scrolls? no problem. move on with your day. its a game.
  • OkitsMsOkitsMs
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    edited August 6
    That's probably because Nexon's probability doesn't work like "real-world" scenarios. I want to make a bet that the probability chances are created by gathering, random extreme low chances and then random extreme high chances...that eventually adds up to the 50%.

    Honestly, that's probably how they program most of their %. I admit, it's very misleading. You honestly just hit the moment where the scrolls were at their lower %.
  • Penguinz0Penguinz0
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    edited August 7
    iArrowZ wrote: »

    do you have sources for those accusations?

    Yes, nexon did lie about scroll chance in the past. In KMS, during 8th anniversary, they released 8th anniversary scroll that had 20% success rate+ 100% boom if failed. Big players were using big $$ on trying to scroll their gears with this scroll+cs scrolls. As players started to use this scroll, they started to notice just how abysmal it is to complete the scrolling even for 20% success chance. One user ripped the client open and posted the image of scrolling chance going down 2% every time a scroll is successfully applied. The first time the scroll is applied is 20%, the second scroll after 1st success is 18% and the third is 16% and so on.
    iArrowZ wrote: »

    also maybe the guy making threads should stop whining LMAO. honestly.

    you had back luck with scrolls? no problem. move on with your day. its a game.

    So if you lose money from playing slots or any other game machines in Vegas with rigged chances, you're just gonna say "welp just a bad luck, no prob, move on, gg"??
    Boy, you're the kind of sucker that people would looooove to suckle money out of your wallet lol. Yes, MS is a game. It's a game that a lot of people spend money and time to play. And if people has suspicion that the game is lying to players about rates and chances, then people should rightfully express their suspicion. Maybe you and the brick wall should learn to simply say "I disagree" to threads you disagree with without sounding like condescending &^%$
  • iArrowZiArrowZ
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    edited August 7
    Penguinz0 wrote: »
    iArrowZ wrote: »

    do you have sources for those accusations?

    Yes, nexon did lie about scroll chance in the past. In KMS, during 8th anniversary, they released 8th anniversary scroll that had 20% success rate+ 100% boom if failed. Big players were using big $$ on trying to scroll their gears with this scroll+cs scrolls. As players started to use this scroll, they started to notice just how abysmal it is to complete the scrolling even for 20% success chance. One user ripped the client open and posted the image of scrolling chance going down 2% every time a scroll is successfully applied. The first time the scroll is applied is 20%, the second scroll after 1st success is 18% and the third is 16% and so on.
    iArrowZ wrote: »

    also maybe the guy making threads should stop whining LMAO. honestly.

    you had back luck with scrolls? no problem. move on with your day. its a game.

    So if you lose money from playing slots or any other game machines in Vegas with rigged chances, you're just gonna say "welp just a bad luck, no prob, move on, gg"??
    Boy, you're the kind of sucker that people would looooove to suckle money out of your wallet lol. Yes, MS is a game. It's a game that a lot of people spend money and time to play. And if people has suspicion that the game is lying to players about rates and chances, then people should rightfully express their suspicion. Maybe you and the brick wall should learn to simply say "I disagree" to threads you disagree with without sounding like condescending &^%$

    no.
    the OP is clearly whining about bad luck.
    just like they been whining in thier idk.. 4 other threads,
    bad luck does not mean the system is rigged.

    its a baseless accusation. so what if they are suspicious.
    should i assume the scrolls are 100% cus all of mine worked? people would tell me i am an idiot.

    i don't see a slew of people complaining about whatever scroll OP used as they were not even clear which one it was...
    complaining about 50% scrolls not all working.. last time i checked 50% is not 100% Smfh. there is many situations where many 50%'s fail.
    as already explained. its not like its as simple as buying 2 scrolls and one works cus its 50%.
    it doesn't work like that

    in the case of the other scroll that is obviously a big screw up. and not comparable at all to this guy's knee jerk reaction at best.

    ironically you came off as a condescending pos
  • Penguinz0Penguinz0
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    edited August 8
    iArrowZ wrote: »
    no.
    the OP is clearly whining about bad luck.
    just like they been whining in thier idk.. 4 other threads,
    bad luck does not mean the system is rigged.

    its a baseless accusation. so what if they are suspicious.
    should i assume the scrolls are 100% cus all of mine worked? people would tell me i am an idiot.

    i don't see a slew of people complaining about whatever scroll OP used as they were not even clear which one it was...
    complaining about 50% scrolls not all working.. last time i checked 50% is not 100% Smfh. there is many situations where many 50%'s fail.
    as already explained. its not like its as simple as buying 2 scrolls and one works cus its 50%.
    it doesn't work like that

    in the case of the other scroll that is obviously a big screw up. and not comparable at all to this guy's knee jerk reaction at best.

    ironically you came off as a condescending pos

    Extreme oversimplification of what people actually complain about. People don't complain because they failed 50% scrolls twice. People complain because they fail 50% scrolls like over ten times in a row, or several other improbable bs like that. Sure failing 50% scrolls over ten times in a row is something that can happen due to reallllllllly bad luck and I'm willing to accept that it's just bad luck for any other game. But, not for MS. I'll say it again, nx actually did lie about scroll chance in the past. It wasn't a "screw up" like some sort of bug. They actually had codes that said 1st scroll has 20% success, 2nd success scroll chance is 18%, 3rd is 16% and etc. It was an intentional lie about scroll chance and they got caught doing it. With this kind of prior, it's not at all "baseless accusations" for people to be suspicious of success chances when they have realllllly bad luck.
    See despite all this, I honestly don't give a $hit if you think chances are not rigged. You could've just replied "I disagree, because blah blah blah" to this thread. But no. Your reply was "also maybe the guy making threads should stop whining LMAO. honestly." I'm sorry that this is hard pill for you to swallow, but you actually are a condescending jack@ss.
  • MeatMeat
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    edited August 11
    Nobody reports or takes notice of absurdly good luck; they only talk about their experiences when they're particularly unlucky. The only evidence that interests you is evidence that supports your theory - that's confirmation bias.

    If you really suspect foul play to such a degree then stop relying on anecdotal evidence and do a binomial test or something. Start off fresh and record every scroll result for a significant number of trials (for epic pot scrolls at least 20, preferably more).
  • Penguinz0Penguinz0
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    edited August 14
    Meat wrote: »
    Nobody reports or takes notice of absurdly good luck; they only talk about their experiences when they're particularly unlucky. The only evidence that interests you is evidence that supports your theory - that's confirmation bias.

    No that's because the number of very good luck situations is significantly outnumbered by number of really bad luck situations. Not to mention that these "good luck" scenarios are when success chances are really low but one manages to succeed consecutively and this happens very rarely. Really bad luck situations are where success chances are mid-high, like 50% epic/innocent scrolls, but fail several times consecutively, which happens much more frequently. When distribution of good luck/bad luck situations are like this, it's not a confirmation bias
    jeCXdKw.png
  • iArrowZiArrowZ
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    edited August 14
    Penguinz0 wrote: »
    iArrowZ wrote: »
    no.
    the OP is clearly whining about bad luck.
    just like they been whining in thier idk.. 4 other threads,
    bad luck does not mean the system is rigged.

    its a baseless accusation. so what if they are suspicious.
    should i assume the scrolls are 100% cus all of mine worked? people would tell me i am an idiot.

    i don't see a slew of people complaining about whatever scroll OP used as they were not even clear which one it was...
    complaining about 50% scrolls not all working.. last time i checked 50% is not 100% Smfh. there is many situations where many 50%'s fail.
    as already explained. its not like its as simple as buying 2 scrolls and one works cus its 50%.
    it doesn't work like that

    in the case of the other scroll that is obviously a big screw up. and not comparable at all to this guy's knee jerk reaction at best.

    ironically you came off as a condescending pos

    Extreme oversimplification of what people actually complain about. People don't complain because they failed 50% scrolls twice. People complain because they fail 50% scrolls like over ten times in a row, or several other improbable bs like that. Sure failing 50% scrolls over ten times in a row is something that can happen due to reallllllllly bad luck and I'm willing to accept that it's just bad luck for any other game. But, not for MS. I'll say it again, nx actually did lie about scroll chance in the past. It wasn't a "screw up" like some sort of bug. They actually had codes that said 1st scroll has 20% success, 2nd success scroll chance is 18%, 3rd is 16% and etc. It was an intentional lie about scroll chance and they got caught doing it. With this kind of prior, it's not at all "baseless accusations" for people to be suspicious of success chances when they have realllllly bad luck.
    See despite all this, I honestly don't give a $hit if you think chances are not rigged. You could've just replied "I disagree, because blah blah blah" to this thread. But no. Your reply was "also maybe the guy making threads should stop whining LMAO. honestly." I'm sorry that this is hard pill for you to swallow, but you actually are a condescending jack@ss.

    my response is simplistic cus my point has already been stated by someone else... Which i clearly mentioned.

    you do not like the way i stated points. ok whatever.

    feel free to claim the "moral highground" if that's what gets you off.
  • MeatMeat
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    edited August 15
    Penguinz0 wrote: »

    No that's because the number of very good luck situations is significantly outnumbered by number of really bad luck situations. Not to mention that these "good luck" scenarios are when success chances are really low but one manages to succeed consecutively and this happens very rarely. Really bad luck situations are where success chances are mid-high, like 50% epic/innocent scrolls, but fail several times consecutively, which happens much more frequently. When distribution of good luck/bad luck situations are like this, it's not a confirmation bias.

    It only seems that way because you don't take notice of things when they're going as expected or somewhat better than expected. You aren't looking at this objectively, and when suggested to do so you double down and express that you don't need to do so because you're correct.

    Get some actual data. Marking a random spot on a normal distribution isn't going to convince anyone.