Today, I have come up with a few theories about what is going on in the arcane river, and what has been going on for quite some time now. A brief summary of the theories is:
-1: Kao is a lie created by The Black Mage.
-2: Ludibrum's portal to the past leads to another fabricated reality (much like the gate to the future in The Temple of Time)
-3: Spiegelmann is either another one of The Black Mage's commanders, or at the very least is one of his followers.
Let's begin by discussing Kao. According to their story, they are you from the future after having battled against The Black Mage, and losing due to lacking an essential power (Arcane Force). They allegedly used what remained of their power to travel back in time in order to prevent you from losing this power. They also give you your very first arcane symbol and convince you to gather the arcane force. This all sounds well and good until you ask a certain question; when did you (Kao) learn time travel?
Kao wasn't just thrown at you in The Temple of Time either. This falsehood began far before he ever turned up in The Temple of Time. Around level 105, your attention is directed towards a mysterious time portal atop Heleos tower in Ludibrium. After stepping through the portal, you find yourself in what appears to be Ellinia's past, where the future job instructors of the explorers have crash-landed after fleeing to Victoria Island when the six heroes began their fight against The Black Mage. Nearly everyone here seems to mistaken you for Kao, as it seems that you look identical to him/her. With a bit of reasoning from the recent events, the conclusion can be drawn that Kao time-traveled back into this time, but there is yet another hole in the scenario. The people talk about Kao as though it seems that they've known him for quite some time at this point, which would imply that Kao has been with them for a fairly long time, but the events taking place seem to occur very shortly after The Black Mage has been sealed away; too short for everyone to be that familiar with Kao. In other words, given the circumstances, it is impossible for that scenario to exist outside of a fabricated reality.
This misinformation was played before your eyes in order to make you susceptible to believing Kao through your own reasoning, but someone helped to set it all in motion. Someone who has been around for a long time, and quite possibly much longer than he would like you to think. Someone who takes selfies with some of Maple World's fiercest monsters, and was even witnessed in the process of creating one of them. If this and the summaries haven't made it obvious enough. I'm of course talking about Spiegelmann. Prior to the monster park revamp, monsters in the park would occasionally drop envelopes containing one of three photographs of Spiegelmann with Zakum, Horntail, and Von Leon. When confronted about the pictures, he attempts to dodge the subject entirely, bribing you with monster park coins, and then never discusses them again.
Why would the Black Mage even bother going through the trouble of all of this? Perhaps when Luminous was split from him, The Black Mage lost something which leaves him unable to harness Erda. Otherwise, it is possible that he would have already done it by now. What if the quest to harness arcane force is just you gathering up the power of Erdas in a vessel that The Black Mage can assimilate? (Ie You). What if this is all just one big trap?
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Tess, Kyrin's brother, who first shows up in Ellin Forest, also appears in the present time as one of the Explorers in your group in the Explorer quest line, also mistaking you for Kao as you leave Southperry for Lith Harbor.
"Two Kaos" Theory:
This one's pretty simple. We know Kao is us, and that after failing to finish off the Black Mage sent himself into the past (or rather, to a place where the flow of time is entirely irrelevant...the Temple of Time. In order to do this however, they had to go against the Erda Flow/Arcane River and found themselves likely falling into the Lake of Oblivion. The Lake of Oblivion doesn't wipe away one's past, but it seems to be like putting a magnet to a hard drive, the data becomes jumbled and corrupted. When Kao drinks the Tinglebrain Potion, it merely arranges some of this corrupted data into a form he can recognize and possibly remembers being called Kao repeatedly (our quest in Elin Forest). This means that as it stands, we have yet to meet the actual "Kao".
Kao, the Time Traveller
See above, but instead of merely going from the battle with the Black Mage straight to the Temple of Time, Kao found himself washed back far into the past before Elin Forest, possibly not even reaching the Lake of Oblivion yet (or if he did, not spending enough time to completely wipe their memories). From here, Kao travels with the Elin Forest group and possibly even crosses paths with the 6 Heroes prior to their final battle. By the time the refugees reach Maple Island, Kao somehow finds their way back to the Erda Flow and is flung into the future via the Lake of Oblivion.
~Spiegelmann has supposed access to areas of the game that are currently inaccessible to anyone, as well as monsters that should not even exist. This can be best gleamed from the Neo City Monster Park, and as I said then, "I don't think there's a breeding ground for robots". Even if he were comissioning someone to build them, they are far too perfect replicas, down to the rust, battle damage, battle tactics, EVERYTHING. Also he doesn't seem like an engineer.
~There used to be content in the game that told some stories of Spiegelmann. Where his White Tiger came from, his Moustache, meeting the "Queen" of Ariant, and building Zakum. All are completely alive places that the player could interact with the people inside of as well as murder the monsters inside, unlike other parts of the game where everything is an illusion more or less. The final boss is an evil painting that was given sentience and Spiegelmanns face for some reason, and also it turned you into a bust of Spiegelmann himself.
~He seems to be some sort of Master Monster Tamer, as a lot of the interactions you have with him, both past and present, involve murdering lots and lots of enemies. This includes the recently added Monster Collection, and he seems to far surpass us in that, implying he has collected EVERYTHING, including the monsters that still elude even the best of us (Most bosses and elite enemies). He is also able to mostly rebrand a monster as something else, down to their abilities, name, and health. He also has a near infinite collection of the corrupt Cygnus Knights, including the Chief Knights, and other monstrosities from the ruined future, which is supposed to be an illusion.
~Potions that boost Attack or Magic Attack? Okay that's one thing. HP/MP and EXP gain? Yeah I'd believe that.
...
There is otherwise no such thing as an item that increases Attack Speed beyond equipment with the Decent Speed Infusion skill. And yet somehow Spiegelmann is able to mass produce 30-minute potions that do exactly that.
~Just to add on to it, he now has seemingly unlimited access to trait items, mesos, spell traces, crafting materials, exp coupons, and honor exp. Also, he can delay giving a player EXP until he is satisfied, at which point he gives it all in multiple batches.
~Also he is containing ghosts and can manipulate their properties to the will of the charms inside the Ghost Park. Beyond that, he can make "dangerous areas" and punish the player for not moving.
Basically, I don't think he has anything to do with the Black Mage. He is far to erratic for something like that, where the Black Mages most loyal followers are... well exactly that, loyal. Any that weren't loyal either suffered the consequences or are still suffering the consequences, and Spiegelmann isn't suffering at all.
And yes, I do spend far too much time thinking about absolute nonsense in a fictional game that barely has anything to connect the plot in the first place. I spend far too much time thinking about everything.
Spilgeman looks the guy with very easy control over reality maybe, over monsters specially, just like CPQ, monster park can give coins that he trade for itens, why does he do that in the first place?
And about kao, he maybe was in the past for long, that's why people know him, or maybe it's not the case, maybe he travelled to a wrong time, i also wonder, WHO ARE YOU? did you just came to the game like in the anime overload that the guy is trapped in the MMO? and why would you look like kao? maybe kao is you from the future, i wonder if black mage didn't overcome time itself...i guess not since he didn't get the power of time, so this mean in the future the black mage wins?: or maybe he did time travel, unlike the illusion in the door to the future and maybe the eos tower portal.