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Red cubes are broken! Complaint post

DaemoniserDaemoniser
Reactions: 1,030
Posts: 27
Member
edited January 2017 in Rants and Raves
22x red cube on epic shoes - still epic (ONE MEISTER DID IT UNIQUE!)
11x red cube on epic gollux ring - still epic
22x red cube on unique cra pants - still unique
Tyrant cape had same problem with epic pot, do not remember how many red's used....
I just threw away 50k nx, really ? :x
PayTobePoor

Comments

  • NeospectorNeospector
    Reactions: 9,860
    Posts: 2,146
    Volunteer Forum Moderator
    edited January 2017
    Flip a coin. Just because it comes up heads the first time doesn't mean it's going to come up tails the second time. The belief that previous outcomes affect future outcomes is known as the Gambler's Fallacy:
    https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-gamblers-fallacy

    Hence, moving this out of bug reports.
  • AKradianAKradian
    Reactions: 40,340
    Posts: 6,342
    Member, Private Tester
    edited January 2017
    @Neospector , you're misinterpreting the gambler's fallacy.

    "I flipped this coin 9 times and all came up heads, so the next one MUST be tails" is gambler's fallacy.
    "I flipped this coin 10 times and all came up heads, so I suspect the coin is weighted" is a logical deduction.

    Gambler's Fallacy is trying to predict the next event, based on previous (independent) ones.
    It is fallacious because of conditional probability. GIVEN that we have already seen the sequence HHHHHHHHH (9 heads),
    the sequence HHHHHHHHHH (10 heads) is just as likely as the sequence HHHHHHHHHT (9 heads and a tail).
    However, looking at the entire picture, it is possible to say whether a large sample of events is behaving in a way that matches the stated probability, or not. 10 heads has a low probability, and while it can happen naturally, suspicion is merited and should be checked out. Otherwise, what is even the meaning of probability?


    The problem with the opening post is that we don't know the "stated probability" of Red Cubes to rank up. So we can't tell whether 55 cubes not ranking up is supposed to be a rare event or not.
    According to http://www.math.toronto.edu/~jim/MS/Cubing.html , a project on cubing statistics based on analyzing youtube videos of people cubing, it takes on average 16 reds to rank up from Epic to Unique, and 38 from Unique to Legendary. So 33 Reds failing to go E->U is not, unfortunately, particularly rare. And 22 failing to go U->L is to be expected.
  • Xenon92Xenon92
    Reactions: 2,125
    Posts: 330
    Member
    edited January 2017
    Daemoniser
    Daemoniser said:

    22x red cube on epic shoes - still epic (ONE MEISTER DID IT UNIQUE!)
    11x red cube on epic gollux ring - still epic
    22x red cube on unique cra pants - still unique
    Tyrant cape had same problem with epic pot, do not remember how many red's used....
    I just threw away 50k nx, really ? :x
    PayTobePoor

    That would be 60k nx down the drain.
  • genji123genji123
    Reactions: 1,120
    Posts: 140
    Member
    edited January 2017
    1. Don't cube intending to tier up when it's not DMT

    2. Don't use red cubes to tier up unless during DMT

    3. Using red cubes on epic and unique equips when you can buy MCC service for like 20mil each

    Nice 50k NX