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Why does it seem like my rng is nearly impossible?

Reactions: 300
Posts: 2
edited June 2019 in Rants and Raves
So I have been playing GMS for a long time now, and I constantly have instances of scrolling where the percentage rates do not seem to reflect the passes and fails that I get on items. Today I used 12 supposedly 50% epic potential scrolls and failed eleven of them. I was so completely in shock and flustered at this that I decided to use a binomial distribution calculator to calculate the probability of this happening. I found out that the chance of this event occurring was .0029296895 or simply .3%. There have also been instances of me failing 10 to 11 stars 24 times in a row ( .0000473838% chance) and failing 162 10% clean slate scrolls in a row ( such a low probability that the calculator just says less than .000001%). These are just a few instances of as good as impossible luck. Now I know that in the upcoming PF patched starforcing and percentages are being reworked, but in my mind the damage has already been done, and a large part of the maplestory community, atleast in Scania, although only from purely anecdotal evidence, suffers from these false rates. I am writing to ask Nexon to try and compensate players who have had to deal with these impossible rates for too long by providing scroll pass rate buffs in the form of lets say 2x exp buffs, but rather 2x or 3x scroll pass rate buffs and providing easier ways of obtaining scrolls to players through playing the game. Lets say higher scroll drop rates on bosses and from completing daily quests in arcane river, commerci, dark world tree, scrapyard and the list goes on. Please don't let something as fun as scrolling and getting stronger in maplestory become something so stressful at such a basic level. Thank you for listening to me, and I appreciate your time.
A Dedicated Player,


  • MorningAfterSevenMorningAfterSeven
    Reactions: 1,025
    Posts: 98
    edited June 2019
    Hi @EliteSlay3rz :)
    Never forget the paradigm of Gambler's fallacy :)

    Remember, there's people able to SF equips to 25 stars, and that's even less than a 3% chance!
    Once I got to 15* without ever failing once (then I decided to keep SFing and fell to 11* :( )

    It's... luck. Pure luck.

    btw: Nexon said they want to make scrolling/SFing easier, let's see where this will get us
  • FuhreakFuhreak
    Reactions: 6,550
    Posts: 1,252
    Member, Private Tester
    edited June 2019
    I found out that the chance of this event occurring was .0029296895 or simply .3%
    Well actually the odds of it happening were 50% with each new one. Just because it's 50/50 doesn't mean you'll always end up with 50/50.
    RNG is well, RNG. Even a 99% chance can fail several times in a row. Play enough of a game where every attack shows you a hit % and you'll start to doubt life itself.
    btw: Nexon said they want to make scrolling/SFing easier, let's see where this will get us
    This should be somewhat soon, Nexon has already made the statement in the patch preview. I can't recall what the new rates are, but you can look through https://orangemushroom.net to see if you can find what Korea changed them to. Most likely we'll get the same rates.