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Marvel Machine Odds

AACMIVAACMIV
Reactions: 1,120
Posts: 43
Member
edited November 2018 in General Chat
They already posted the odds for some of the boxes already. Don't you guys think we need some odds on the Marvel Machine?
  1. Marvel Machine Odds?10 votes
    1. Yes
       70% (7 votes)
    2. No
       0% (0 votes)
    3. Who cares?
       30% (3 votes)

Comments

  • ArwooArwoo
    Reactions: 17,755
    Posts: 498
    Member
    edited November 2018
    We'll be sharing the rates for Marvel Machine so no worries!
    FuhreakAACMIVRenniInvulgo
  • DaxterbeerDaxterbeer
    Reactions: 7,435
    Posts: 1,059
    Member
    edited November 2018
    Arwoo wrote: »
    We'll be sharing the rates for Marvel Machine so no worries!

    Arwoo's Christmas List

    -Frenzy Totem
    -Firestarter Ring
    -Lucid Earrings
    -Outlaw Heart
  • SorrowSorrow
    Reactions: 2,780
    Posts: 314
    Member, Private Tester
    edited November 2018
    Will the rates be available before Marvel Machine can be purchased? I don't want to see them get posted after Marvel is finished.
    AACMIV
  • AACMIVAACMIV
    Reactions: 1,120
    Posts: 43
    Member
    edited November 2018
    Arwoo wrote: »
    We'll be sharing the rates for Marvel Machine so no worries!

    Ok but do you have a date for when?
    As Sorrow said,
    Sorrow wrote: »
    Will the rates be available before Marvel Machine can be purchased? I don't want to see them get posted after Marvel is finished.

  • ShokunKaYoShokunKaYo
    Reactions: 1,470
    Posts: 147
    Member
    edited November 2018
    Roses are Red
    Violets are Blue
    It doesn't matter what the rate is
    You're still getting nexoned
  • SorrowSorrow
    Reactions: 2,780
    Posts: 314
    Member, Private Tester
    edited December 2018
    I did the math on Frenzy totem and it's a 1/26,455 chance. Can we have a discussion about how ridiculous this is at basically $5.00 per try? You would have to spend over $10,000.00 USD to obtain one.
  • FuhreakFuhreak
    Reactions: 7,630
    Posts: 1,614
    Member, Private Tester
    edited December 2018
    Sorrow wrote: »
    I did the math on Frenzy totem and it's a 1/26,455 chance. Can we have a discussion about how ridiculous this is at basically $5.00 per try? You would have to spend over $10,000.00 USD to obtain one.

    The whole thing sounds like a bad idea to me. (Frenzy Totem in general)
    It's so rare that only those who have either the luck of the devil or enough money to support Nexon single handed can obtain one.
    If it wasn't rare it would create the same problems that Kishin does. IMO it's just another thing Nexon should never have allowed to happen.
  • AggraphineAggraphine
    Reactions: 19,415
    Posts: 3,553
    Member
    edited December 2018
    Gee it's almost like it's straight-up gambling, in that you have a chance for a massive payout with little expense, or massive expense with little payout.

    Let's be real here for a moment. We've all known for ages that frenzy totems were insanely rare from marvel. Why is everyone suddenly upset by this with the addition of a hard percentage to go along with that? No one ever complained about "wow you expect us to spend this much for one", everyone just knew you had to either drop a crapload of money or get stupid lucky.

    And @Sorrow, that's wrong, stop it. Each individual spin is its own chance and previous failures have no basis on future success. You, like many others in this game and ones like it, are falling victim to the gambler's fallacy. The only way there could be a solid "this is how much it would cost to get one" is if there were some sort of failsafe to marvel, where after x number of spins you're guaranteed something, but we all know this is not how it works.
    Fuhreak
  • SorrowSorrow
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    edited December 2018
    I never once mentioned having increased success rate for each continued attempt in Marvel, you made that assumption yourself.
  • AggraphineAggraphine
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    Member
    edited December 2018
    Sorrow wrote: »
    I never once mentioned having increased success rate for each continued attempt in Marvel, you made that assumption yourself.
    Sorrow wrote: »
    I did the math on Frenzy totem and it's a 1/26,455 chance. Can we have a discussion about how ridiculous this is at basically $5.00 per try? You would have to spend over $10,000.00 USD to obtain one.

    I'm pretty sure no one has spent over $10k to get a frenzy totem, and there are a good number of them spread across the worlds.
  • NeospectorNeospector
    Reactions: 9,860
    Posts: 2,146
    Volunteer Forum Moderator
    edited December 2018
    Sorrow wrote: »
    I did the math on Frenzy totem and it's a 1/26,455 chance. Can we have a discussion about how ridiculous this is at basically $5.00 per try? You would have to spend over $10,000.00 USD to obtain one.

    Er, no? Frenzy has a 0.02% chance. 2/10000, or 1/5000 odds simplified.

    Where are you getting 26,455 from?
    Fuhreak
  • SorrowSorrow
    Reactions: 2,780
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    Member, Private Tester
    edited December 2018
    You have an 18.9% chance to have a chance at obtaining Frenzy at a rate of 0.02%.
  • OccireOccire
    Reactions: 1,935
    Posts: 140
    Member, Private Tester
    edited December 2018
    Sorrow wrote: »
    You have an 18.9% chance to have a chance at obtaining Frenzy at a rate of 0.02%.

    That's not right, there's a 0.02% chance to get a Frenzy Totem out of all the items in the A group, it's not a 0.02% chance to get a Frenzy out of just the equips. 18.9% is just the sum of rates for all the items categorized as equips.

    You can verify this easily. There's a 0.2% chance to get an Android category item from group A. There's only one Android category item in group A, which is the Titanium Heart, which is listed at a rate of 0.2%. If it functioned the way you assumed, it would be 100% instead.
  • AggraphineAggraphine
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    Member
    edited December 2018
    I feel like this summarizes the past couple of days since they posted marvel rates:

    IlBl8ei.jpg
    bumbertyr
  • DancemonDancemon
    Reactions: 1,635
    Posts: 120
    Member
    edited December 2018
    Nexon works in mysterious ways
    In the launcher they stated they removed Gacha from the list, but if you look at the Odds you still have a good Chance of getting some =)

    Way to go Nexon, Keep up the good work